Contenders, Cheats, Opportunists and Turncoats: Marcos, Robredo, Cayetano, Pimentel and the Battle f

It's been more than four months since Atty. Bruce Rivera's group filed an impeachment complaint against VP Leni Robredo. Yet until now, members of congress seem reluctant to endorse it. Which begs the question: Why?

Well, to begin with, we already told some of our DDS friends months ago that an impeachment move against Leni is unlikely to prosper. We can speculate endlessly as to what could be the possible reasons but one thing clearly stands out: 2022.

By now we should all be aware that an impeachment proceeding is political in nature. It is politically motivated, and its success depends on political alignments as well.

Let's cut the tedious crap. Nobody in congress cares whether Leni misdeclared her SALN (who doesn't?) or whether she betrayed the public trust or there is culpable violation of the constitution. All that matters for an impeachment rap to succeed is if one has the numbers to see it through. All those debates about case merits do not really have much bearing on the outcome (as in Chief Justice Renato Corona's case, where at the end of the day bribes and concessions ultimately did the trick) and are merely for show and purely cosmetic (usually in aid of grandstanding and political posturing, to serve the greater purpose which is really "in aid of re-election").

So despite pretensions and appearances, the bottom line in any impeachment complaint is NUMBERS. If you have the numbers, what's keeping you?

But here's what's strange. Leni Robredo is perceived to be a clear and present threat to the current administration. For as long as she is not booted out of her position, it seems, the yellows will continue to destabilize the government so that they will reclaim power through Leni. We have said this several times in the past, Leni Robredo is their last remaining ace. Without her, what does the future hold for them? Leni's downfall may well result in the total decimation of what “little” remains of the Liberal Party.

So if Leni Robredo is a threat, does it not make sense to get rid of her now so that President Duterte can govern in peace? And is it not a well-known fact that congress now is made up of what is known in political parlance as a “super majority?” Which basically means that a great big number of incumbent congressmen and senators have decided to jump ship from their previous political parties and shed their previous allegiances to align themselves with the current dispensation. And last time we checked, we have an unprecedented super majority in the lower house whose numbers go far beyond the requisite for any impeachment complaint to proceed plus a co-opted minority led by Quezon Rep. Danilo Suarez. The real opposition bloc, led by LP congressmen Edcel Lagman and Teddy Baguilat, have been reduced to a joke – claiming no more than eight members. Same thing goes in the Senate, where the LP senators led by Frank Drilon plus Antonio Trillanes and the now detained Leila De Lima seem to be greatly outnumbered by the majority.

Yet as it is in politics, things are not really as simple as black and white now are they?

If we are to count our numbers, we seem to have more than enough to impeach even Leni’s hairdresser, yet why does no one in congress seem inclined to support the impeachment bid against her? Something does not quite add up here. Let’s see what we could gather.

I. LOYALTY

FIRST, let’s do a loyalty check. Yes we do have a super majority in congress but before President Duterte won, where exactly did the members of this super majority come from?

Yup. You got it right. The LP.

So Bebot Alvarez managed to secure the speakership by offering concessions to the real majority of congressmen in power – which are mostly turncoats from LP. Koko Pimentel did the same in the Senate. He had no party mates in the upper chamber, and the only reason he got the Senate Presidency is by offering concessions to Sotto’s group and by sleeping with Drilon and his LP bloc (mostly through highly coveted committee chairmanships) until Manny Pacquiao threw an unexpected left hook and forced Drilon’s bloc out of the majority.

What lesson can we gather from this fable of skin-shedding reptiles and turncoats whose survival instincts are so keen they’d put predatory animals to shame?

Simple, that their decision to join the super majority is neither motivated by a sudden outpouring of loyalty to the new President nor a rekindling of nationalistic ideals but rather by vested interests, duplicity, self-protection and survival.

Drilon’s group was never ideologically aligned with the present dispensation, yet they joined the majority to secure the best possible deals for themselves. Pimentel even agreed to give the justice committee chairmanship to Leila de Lima in exchange for her support in his bid for the Senate Presidency.

Alvarez’s strategy in the lower house was better. He got Fariñas to side with him and engineered a come-from-behind approach to break the LP ranks and gather as many turncoats to join their side in time for President Duterte’s first State of the Nation address. Negotiations were still going on in the morning of the first SONA as they strategized how to further decimate the opposition by stealing the minority from Baguilat and Lagman. It was extremely well-played, thanks to the skillful machinations of Rudy Fariñas, even Belmonte’s clique of LP loyalists was left with no choice but to join the super majority. It wasn’t just a political slam dunk for President Duterte and Alvarez. It was a rout of the LP. A classic bandwagon victory. At the end of the day only eight congressmen remained in political limbo. They were neither in the majority nor in the minority. Their numbers were too insignificant they were practically treated as a side joke by Alvarez himself – referring to them as “bite-sized.” Or so it seemed.

But then again as we mentioned earlier, there is more than meets the eye in this real life version of Game of Thrones. Your allegiances may shift (especially when left with no choice) but your loyalties to the previous order may stay intact. A lot of these politicians may have sworn their oaths to the present administration but a good number of them remain true to their colors as closet LP loyalists. You do not have to torture yourself and belabor the obvious to find out who these people are – you might want to start with Belmonte’s bloc (which includes Miro Quimbo, Bolet Banal and Gabby Bordado), then you can straddle your way up to the House leadership until you reach Manong Rudy’s doorstep.

Here’s a fearless forecast. In the oft chance that something happens to the President (knock on wood) and Leni Robredo secures the presidency via constitutional succession (she is, as a matter of fact, constitutionally mandated to succeed the President despite questions on the legitimacy of her election), many of these turncoats will revert back to their previous allegiances and swear fealty to the new queen. And those who are aligned with Duterte will find themselves joining the new coalition or forming the new opposition. Sadly, this is the reality of Philippine politics in its most sordid form.

This is the reason why a lot of our congressmen and senators are on a ‘wait and see’ mode. It goes without mentioning that a lot of them are already disgruntled with the administration’s policies – the drug war, the anti-corruption drive, PRRD’s anti-mining stance that seems to run inimical to their pro-mining interests, the lack of congressional pork, and so on and so forth.

A Robredo presidency will not only signal a comeback to the glory days of loot and plunder, it will usher forth a new era in patronage and narcopolitics. “Oh happy days are here again,” the merry band of thieves are bound to sing. “Can’t wait,” a lot of them are silently thinking. “Right now all we have to do is survive five more years of Rody Duterte.”

“Perhaps shorter if the odds suddenly swing in our favor.”

So there you have it. Loyalty. Philippine style. Politicians are only loyal to you so long as their interests are aligned with yours. If you stray from the crooked path, they’ll wish you dead and think of ways to bring you down. ‘Nuff said.

II. 2022

SECOND, you have 2022.

Yes things are definitely shaping up in preparation for 2022.

No different from what happened back in Aquino's time, when everyone was jockeying to secure the best deals for 2016.

Now here's the situation:

Duterte seems to have the numbers. But those below him are putting their interests first before anything else.

If Leni is out, who benefits?

The most obvious case in point, her arch-rival and top 2022 presidential contender, BongBong Marcos.

Again let’s cut the bullshit here folks and admit that there are a lot of people aligned with Duterte who are not happy seeing a Marcos returning to power. In fact, it would be fair to say that there are some people close to President Duterte who are doing everything they can to prevent that from happening.

All things held constant, 2022 looks like a 3-way or a 4-cornered fight.

The main contenders as of now are Marcos and Leni.

But Alan Cayetano is jostling his way in. And Alan has his own cabal within the Duterte administration.

Another potential group is PDP-Laban. It remains to be seen who this group will most likely toss up. The ambitious Koko Pimentel might join the fray (though he lacks the political capital to be a serious contender) but like Alan Cayetano, Pimentel will never side with Marcos. There is an even bigger chance of Pimentel teaming up with Leni Robredo and the LP (his real bosom buddies) than there is a chance of himself warming up to a Marcos presidency. And Koko has a political ace up his sleeve in the person of Rudy Fariñas, a guy who is just as ambitious and politically savvy who hates the Marcoses just as much as the two aforementioned personalities.

There is much animosity between Alan and Koko (as exhibited by their recent rivalry over the Senate Presidency post), but they share the same disdain for the Marcoses. Which means that they share the same interest in keeping Marcos out. They did it with Trillanes when they teamed up against Binay, they can always do the same thing now.

When it comes to congress, Alvarez is just a figurehead.

Fariñas is the one who wields power.

He's the real Speaker of the House.

He controls majority of the congressmen. Having been a former LP stalwart himself.

Politically, it constitutes tremendous leverage - as congressmen are capable of mobilizing local support for national candidates - machinery and all.

Recently, Rudy Fariñas raised hell against Imee Marcos.

Marcos’ supporters are saying Fariñas is doing all this to benefit his family locally. His daughter Ria is said to be running for governor in Ilocos Norte.

The truth is, Farinas' leverage does not emanate from Ilocos.

Ilocos is Marcos country and no matter what he does, he will never defeat the Marcoses in their own turf.

Hence the demolition job against Imee, and the latter is apparently retaliating by exposing Farinas' own dirty laundry.

Fariñas' strength comes from his position in Congress.

That's his leverage.

And both Pimentel and Cayetano are using it to their advantage.

They both want to be president someday. Cayetano is Nacionalista and seems to have Villar’s backing (although Villar would be quick to deny this by saying that Marcos is likewise a Nacionalista, though the latter is very much independent logistics wise. Playing safe and benefiting silently seem to be the Villars’ recently acquired talent). Both Cayetano and Pimentel must have brokered a deal with the Villars when they arranged for Mark to get the DPWH post when President Duterte won. And a Pimentel presidency, however far-fetched, will be extremely friendly and accommodating to the LP folks, as is clearly demonstrated by his leniency when it comes to his colleagues in the Senate who are aligned with the LP.

Now those people who are claiming that Farinas’ beef with the Marcoses is purely local are missing the big picture. This shit is national. Destroying Marcos and derailing every chance of them making a comeback will have national repercussions.

What's saddening is that these people are not really interested in cleansing the country of its dregs.

Their interest lies mainly in securing power.

Which makes them no different from the kind of politicians we despise.

Now here's the meat:

Cayetano, Pimentel, Fariñas et al…

Could be brokering deals with Leni's camp.

Sort of a Plan B.

All to prevent a Marcos comeback from happening.

Several scenarios:

Either they're joining forces now vs. Marcos then they’ll fight each other later as they did with Binay, or

Leni withdraws in support of either of them in exchange for immunity from suit and prosecution.

Or Alan and Koko can practically team up for 2022 with the support of Leni and the LP bloc behind them.

This explains why Cayetano, Pimentel, Fariñas et al are all silent when it comes to the Leni Robredo issue. Why nobody seems interested in picking up the allegations we have been throwing against Leni, no matter how serious they seem.

And the impeachment complaint against Leni in Congress is not gaining any traction. Because Rudy Fariñas is there. And in case congress decides to endorse an impeachment rap vs. Leni, this could be a strategy no different from Conchita's case vs. Noynoy.

A deliberate ruse. An engineered sham meant to keep Leni from getting impeached in the next several years.

They impeach her now, it won’t prosper since they'll rein in the congressmen. And the impeachment ban will take effect.

So Leni is temporarily secure just like what happened to PRRD now.

The big question is: Where does President Duterte stand amidst all of these? A potential dark horse could be Sara Duterte herself entering the race in 2022. And this could be a definite game changer since the Duterte brand has the capacity to neutralize any and all opposition if it continues to be popular until 2022.

III. BBM'S RECOUNT

THIRD, you have BBM’s Electoral Protest Case against Leni.

BBM’s protest case against Robredo is likewise a game changer. It will shift the political dynamics to favor the one who wins.

Marcos may not have the numbers now, since he ran his campaign much like Rodrigo Duterte, without the help of a lot of local political bigwigs outside their turfs of Ilocos and Davao, but all this is bound to change if he wins the electoral protest case and gets proclaimed as the rightful VP instead of Leni Robredo.

This will put him in a very unique position to claim the presidency in 2022, but BBM has to play his cards right. In our opinion, he has to ally himself with a powerful political force that will definitely boost his presidential prospects – and so far, given the present political landscape, only the Dutertes can offer what he needs. That is, if Sara will be willing to run as his VP instead of preferring things the other way around.

Only a Marcos-Duterte tandem will effectively demolish what remains of the LP and provide the much needed political stability in our country.

Now Leni on the other hand, is doing everything possible to delay the recount. She’s guilty as fuck. And she knows damn well that if BongBong’s case prospers and she is revealed to have benefited from massive electoral cheating which resulted in her victory, that’ll be the end of her.

The only chance she has in redeeming what remains of her limited political prospects lies in delaying the protest case until it becomes moot and academic by 2022. But what happens if a decision is reached before 2022 and Leni loses?

She can resign.

However, if Leni resigns before the recount, that only means one thing.

A deal has already been brokered.

Leni resigns, then withdraws from the race in exchange for protection and her possible support for any of the contenders.

No different from what happened to Binay, albeit under different circumstances.

Binay has not been prosecuted because his group supported Duterte.

Binay's group = the fake minority in Congress headed by Suarez and Lito Atienza.

But then again in Philippine politics, nothing is set in stone. Everything can change in the flick of a finger. And any change in the political dynamic can significantly alter alliances and prospects.

So even if she resigns, Leni still has value after all. She can still use her position as LP figurehead to throw her support behind Marcos’ opponents.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why nobody in both houses of congress seems keen in prosecuting or impeaching her right now.

Leni is being weaponized against a Marcos revival. Even her impeachment is being used as leverage to broker deals and concessions. And it all points to 2022.

And if BBM’s opponents succeed (and we’re not just referring to Leni and the LP), what assurances do we have that things are bound to change?

None. As we keep on repeating on and on ad infinitum – we’ll be back in the same shit pile we tried so desperately hard to crawl out of.

Unless we step up and intervene now.

A BBM-Duterte Tandem for 2022 is the only way to ensure we don't go back to square one.

This is why everyone who shares the same perspective must definitely organize now.